Cross-country comparison over absolute dates⮸
Daily Dead (7-Day Average)⮸
Cross-country comparison with approximately aligned start days⮸
Daily Dead (7-Day Average)⮸
Per-country analysis with exponential and sigmoidal projections, and new cases analysis⮸
IMPORTANT: The projections are only accurate if the fit is good (it often isn't), and assuming nothing changes
going forward. The sigmoid is omitted if a reasonable fit can't be computed, but this still doesn't mean that
the fit is good if it is shown.
The dashed lines show best fit projections from a few previous days for comparison.
Start date 2020-03-15 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $4,474$ on 2020-05-03
Best fit exponential: \(380 \times 10^{0.022t}\) (doubling rate \(13.6\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{5,265.7}{1 + 10^{-0.042 (t - 35.7)}}\) (asimptote \(5,265.7\))
Start date 2020-03-18 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $463$ on 2020-05-03
Best fit exponential: \(67.2 \times 10^{0.020t}\) (doubling rate \(15.2\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{445.0}{1 + 10^{-0.085 (t - 22.9)}}\) (asimptote \(445.0\))
Start date 2020-03-17 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $2,075$ on 2020-05-03
Start date 2020-03-18 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $332$ on 2020-05-03
Best fit exponential: \(107 \times 10^{0.013t}\) (doubling rate \(23.7\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{335.3}{1 + 10^{-0.102 (t - 15.3)}}\) (asimptote \(335.3\))
Start date 2020-03-21 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $10$ on 2020-05-03
Best fit exponential: \(3.79 \times 10^{0.011t}\) (doubling rate \(26.9\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{9.5}{1 + 10^{-0.091 (t - 11.3)}}\) (asimptote \(9.5\))
Start date 2020-03-18 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $7$ on 2020-05-03
Start date 2020-03-19 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $674$ on 2020-05-03
Best fit exponential: \(50.1 \times 10^{0.025t}\) (doubling rate \(12.3\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{2,481.1}{1 + 10^{-0.028 (t - 61.8)}}\) (asimptote \(2,481.1\))
Start date 2020-03-21 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $33$ on 2020-05-03
Best fit exponential: \(7.16 \times 10^{0.016t}\) (doubling rate \(18.6\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{30.4}{1 + 10^{-0.060 (t - 17.5)}}\) (asimptote \(30.4\))
Start date 2020-03-19 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $566$ on 2020-05-03
Start date 2020-03-17 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $4,903$ on 2020-05-03
Best fit exponential: \(347 \times 10^{0.025t}\) (doubling rate \(12.0\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{5,774.5}{1 + 10^{-0.051 (t - 34.2)}}\) (asimptote \(5,774.5\))
Start date 2020-03-22 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $174$ on 2020-05-03
Best fit exponential: \(38.2 \times 10^{0.017t}\) (doubling rate \(17.6\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{168.0}{1 + 10^{-0.075 (t - 17.5)}}\) (asimptote \(168.0\))
Start date 2020-03-18 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $3,291$ on 2020-05-03
Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $6,465$ on 2020-05-03
Best fit exponential: \(317 \times 10^{0.026t}\) (doubling rate \(11.5\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{11,160.2}{1 + 10^{-0.037 (t - 47.9)}}\) (asimptote \(11,160.2\))
Start date 2020-03-22 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $429$ on 2020-05-03
Best fit exponential: \(39.7 \times 10^{0.025t}\) (doubling rate \(12.0\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{555.2}{1 + 10^{-0.045 (t - 32.0)}}\) (asimptote \(555.2\))
Start date 2020-03-16 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $4,474$ on 2020-05-03
Start date 2020-03-13 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $1,013$ on 2020-05-03
Best fit exponential: \(186 \times 10^{0.016t}\) (doubling rate \(19.1\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{983.6}{1 + 10^{-0.065 (t - 23.1)}}\) (asimptote \(983.6\))
Start date 2020-03-22 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $42$ on 2020-05-03
Best fit exponential: \(11.4 \times 10^{0.015t}\) (doubling rate \(20.1\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{40.8}{1 + 10^{-0.077 (t - 15.5)}}\) (asimptote \(40.8\))
Start date 2020-03-13 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $643$ on 2020-05-03
Start date 2020-03-21 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $2,077$ on 2020-05-03
Best fit exponential: \(204 \times 10^{0.024t}\) (doubling rate \(12.7\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{2,881.8}{1 + 10^{-0.039 (t - 34.6)}}\) (asimptote \(2,881.8\))
Start date 2020-03-29 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $64$ on 2020-05-03
Best fit exponential: \(6.54 \times 10^{0.030t}\) (doubling rate \(10.2\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{75.4}{1 + 10^{-0.070 (t - 23.7)}}\) (asimptote \(75.4\))
Start date 2020-03-21 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $1,060$ on 2020-05-03
Start date 2020-03-20 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $335$ on 2020-05-03
Best fit exponential: \(7.54 \times 10^{0.037t}\) (doubling rate \(8.1\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{694.9}{1 + 10^{-0.049 (t - 45.6)}}\) (asimptote \(694.9\))
Start date 2020-03-20 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $5$ on 2020-05-03
Start date 2020-03-21 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $245$ on 2020-05-03
