Analysis of the most affected countries in Africa

Cross-country comparison over absolute dates

Confirmed

Dead

Daily Dead (7-Day Average)

Active

Cross-country comparison with approximately aligned start days

Confirmed

Dead

Daily Dead (7-Day Average)

Active

Per-country analysis with exponential and sigmoidal projections, and new cases analysis

IMPORTANT: The projections are only accurate if the fit is good (it often isn't), and assuming nothing changes going forward. The sigmoid is omitted if a reasonable fit can't be computed, but this still doesn't mean that the fit is good if it is shown.

The dashed lines show best fit projections from a few previous days for comparison.

Algeria

Population $43,851,044$

Confirmed

Start date 2020-03-15 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $4,474$ on 2020-05-03

Best fit exponential: \(380 \times 10^{0.022t}\) (doubling rate \(13.6\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{5,265.7}{1 + 10^{-0.042 (t - 35.7)}}\) (asimptote \(5,265.7\))

Dead

Start date 2020-03-18 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $463$ on 2020-05-03

Best fit exponential: \(67.2 \times 10^{0.020t}\) (doubling rate \(15.2\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{445.0}{1 + 10^{-0.085 (t - 22.9)}}\) (asimptote \(445.0\))

Active

Start date 2020-03-17 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $2,075$ on 2020-05-03

Mauritius

Population $1,271,768$

Confirmed

Start date 2020-03-18 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $332$ on 2020-05-03

Best fit exponential: \(107 \times 10^{0.013t}\) (doubling rate \(23.7\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{335.3}{1 + 10^{-0.102 (t - 15.3)}}\) (asimptote \(335.3\))

Dead

Start date 2020-03-21 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $10$ on 2020-05-03

Best fit exponential: \(3.79 \times 10^{0.011t}\) (doubling rate \(26.9\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{9.5}{1 + 10^{-0.091 (t - 11.3)}}\) (asimptote \(9.5\))

Active

Start date 2020-03-18 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $7$ on 2020-05-03

Congo (Kinshasa)

Population $5,518,087$

Confirmed

Start date 2020-03-19 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $674$ on 2020-05-03

Best fit exponential: \(50.1 \times 10^{0.025t}\) (doubling rate \(12.3\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{2,481.1}{1 + 10^{-0.028 (t - 61.8)}}\) (asimptote \(2,481.1\))

Dead

Start date 2020-03-21 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $33$ on 2020-05-03

Best fit exponential: \(7.16 \times 10^{0.016t}\) (doubling rate \(18.6\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{30.4}{1 + 10^{-0.060 (t - 17.5)}}\) (asimptote \(30.4\))

Active

Start date 2020-03-19 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $566$ on 2020-05-03

Morocco

Population $36,910,560$

Confirmed

Start date 2020-03-17 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $4,903$ on 2020-05-03

Best fit exponential: \(347 \times 10^{0.025t}\) (doubling rate \(12.0\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{5,774.5}{1 + 10^{-0.051 (t - 34.2)}}\) (asimptote \(5,774.5\))

Dead

Start date 2020-03-22 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $174$ on 2020-05-03

Best fit exponential: \(38.2 \times 10^{0.017t}\) (doubling rate \(17.6\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{168.0}{1 + 10^{-0.075 (t - 17.5)}}\) (asimptote \(168.0\))

Active

Start date 2020-03-18 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $3,291$ on 2020-05-03

Egypt

Population $102,334,404$

Confirmed

Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $6,465$ on 2020-05-03

Best fit exponential: \(317 \times 10^{0.026t}\) (doubling rate \(11.5\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{11,160.2}{1 + 10^{-0.037 (t - 47.9)}}\) (asimptote \(11,160.2\))

Dead

Start date 2020-03-22 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $429$ on 2020-05-03

Best fit exponential: \(39.7 \times 10^{0.025t}\) (doubling rate \(12.0\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{555.2}{1 + 10^{-0.045 (t - 32.0)}}\) (asimptote \(555.2\))

Active

Start date 2020-03-16 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $4,474$ on 2020-05-03

Tunisia

Population $11,818,619$

Confirmed

Start date 2020-03-13 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $1,013$ on 2020-05-03

Best fit exponential: \(186 \times 10^{0.016t}\) (doubling rate \(19.1\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{983.6}{1 + 10^{-0.065 (t - 23.1)}}\) (asimptote \(983.6\))

Dead

Start date 2020-03-22 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $42$ on 2020-05-03

Best fit exponential: \(11.4 \times 10^{0.015t}\) (doubling rate \(20.1\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{40.8}{1 + 10^{-0.077 (t - 15.5)}}\) (asimptote \(40.8\))

Active

Start date 2020-03-13 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $643$ on 2020-05-03

Cameroon

Population $26,545,863$

Confirmed

Start date 2020-03-21 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $2,077$ on 2020-05-03

Best fit exponential: \(204 \times 10^{0.024t}\) (doubling rate \(12.7\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{2,881.8}{1 + 10^{-0.039 (t - 34.6)}}\) (asimptote \(2,881.8\))

Dead

Start date 2020-03-29 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $64$ on 2020-05-03

Best fit exponential: \(6.54 \times 10^{0.030t}\) (doubling rate \(10.2\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{75.4}{1 + 10^{-0.070 (t - 23.7)}}\) (asimptote \(75.4\))

Active

Start date 2020-03-21 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $1,060$ on 2020-05-03

Gabon

Population $2,225,734$

Confirmed

Start date 2020-03-20 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $335$ on 2020-05-03

Best fit exponential: \(7.54 \times 10^{0.037t}\) (doubling rate \(8.1\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{694.9}{1 + 10^{-0.049 (t - 45.6)}}\) (asimptote \(694.9\))

Dead

Start date 2020-03-20 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $5$ on 2020-05-03

Active

Start date 2020-03-21 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $245$ on 2020-05-03

Recovering countries that had over 300 active cases at peak

List of all recovering countries (the top 4 not covered above are also analyzed below)

Burkina Faso recovered 76%
Niger recovered 62%

Burkina Faso

Population $20,903,273$

Confirmed

Start date 2020-03-19 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $662$ on 2020-05-03

Best fit exponential: \(182 \times 10^{0.014t}\) (doubling rate \(21.7\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{663.6}{1 + 10^{-0.058 (t - 17.1)}}\) (asimptote \(663.6\))

Dead

Start date 2020-03-22 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $45$ on 2020-05-03

Best fit exponential: \(10.7 \times 10^{0.016t}\) (doubling rate \(18.8\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{47.3}{1 + 10^{-0.051 (t - 19.0)}}\) (asimptote \(47.3\))

Active

Start date 2020-03-19 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $77$ on 2020-05-03

Niger

Population $24,206,644$

Confirmed

Start date 2020-03-30 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $750$ on 2020-05-03

Best fit exponential: \(239 \times 10^{0.016t}\) (doubling rate \(18.5\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{702.4}{1 + 10^{-0.118 (t - 10.5)}}\) (asimptote \(702.4\))

Dead

Start date 2020-03-30 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $36$ on 2020-05-03

Best fit exponential: \(5.89 \times 10^{0.023t}\) (doubling rate \(12.9\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{58.3}{1 + 10^{-0.037 (t - 29.3)}}\) (asimptote \(58.3\))

Active

Start date 2020-04-01 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $196$ on 2020-05-03